Table of Contents

When Will Unilever’s Stock Rise Again? A Deep Dive into UNVR’s Performance

Unilever Indonesia (UNVR) was once a stock market darling, but its share price has plunged over 80% since 2018. Will it ever recover? Let’s analyze the facts, history, and future prospects of this blue-chip stock.

Introduction: From Market Darling to Market Doubt

For years, Unilever Indonesia was the go-to example of a solid company with steady growth. From 2005 to 2018, its share price soared by 1,200% (13x), turning Rp10 million into Rp130 million — not counting dividends paid twice yearly. However, since 2018, UNVR stock has plummeted drastically. The big question: when will it recover?

The Rise and Fall of Unilever’s Stock

Peak Performance (2005–2018)

Unilever’s net profit grew from Rp1.4 trillion in 2005 to Rp9.1 trillion in 2018, fueling a massive stock rally. At its peak in 2018, Unilever was the 5th most valuable company in Indonesia, below only BCA, BRI, HM Sampoerna, and Telkom.

The Turning Point (2018–2019)

Behind the impressive 2018 results was a one-off Rp2.9 trillion gain from selling its spread division (Blue Band). Without this, its net profit was actually only Rp7 trillion — already showing signs of decline compared to 2017. By 2019, net profit dropped further to Rp7.4 trillion, sparking investor doubts.

The Pandemic Effect (2020–2024)

COVID-19 worsened the downturn. Profits fell consistently:

• 2020: Rp7.2 trillion
• 2021: Rp5.8 trillion
• 2022: Rp5.4 trillion
• 2023: Rp4.5 trillion
• 2024 (est.): Rp4 trillion

This persistent decline mirrored the share price crash of over 80% from its peak.

Why the Steep Drop?

Two main reasons explain the plunge:

1. Overvaluation: By 2018, Unilever was trading at very high valuations, leaving little room for error.
2. Falling Earnings: Continuous declines in net profit eroded investor confidence, prompting big funds to exit.

This combination is deadly: even a great company can see its stock sink if bought at the wrong price.

Lessons from Microsoft’s Dotcom Crash

A similar case happened with Microsoft during the 2000 dotcom bubble. Its stock crashed despite strong fundamentals and only recovered 17 years later. The takeaway: a strong brand doesn’t guarantee immediate recovery if valuations and earnings disappoint.

When Can Unilever’s Stock Recover?

Unilever remains a fundamentally solid company with over 40 household brands still widely used in Indonesia. However, stock recovery depends on one key factor: consistent earnings growth.

• If net profit continues to decline, the stock will likely stay weak.
• If earnings stabilize or grow, recovery may begin.
• Be cautious of “fake” profit spikes from asset sales (like the 2018 spread division or the rumored 2024 ice cream business sale worth Rp7 trillion).

How Investors Should Respond

Here are practical steps for monitoring UNVR:

• Check quarterly reports: Focus on net profit trends, not one-time gains.
• Watch valuation: Even a good stock isn’t worth buying at an inflated price.
• Stay patient: Like Microsoft, recovery can take years — but strong fundamentals matter in the long run.

“Great companies don’t always make great investments — unless you buy them at the right price.”

Conclusion

Unilever’s stock may rise again, but only if the company proves its ability to grow profits consistently. Until then, investors should monitor its performance closely and avoid chasing short-term spikes. Remember: investing is about patience, discipline, and valuation — not just brand loyalty.

What’s your take on Unilever’s future? Share your thoughts in the comments below and let’s discuss!

Labels:

Finance

References / Sources:

• Video: Kapan Saham Unilever Bisa Naik Lagi?
• YouTube Channel: Saham dari Nol
• Link ke materi asli