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How to Predict BRI (BBRI) Stock Price Using Book Value & PBV (2025–2030 Projection)

Simple, practical framework to project BBRI’s fair price using book value growth and average PBV—complete with 2025–2030 scenarios and risk notes.

Ever seen bold calls like “this stock can double soon” without any method behind the number? In this guide, we’ll reverse that approach. You’ll learn a repeatable way to estimate the fair value range of Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI/BBRI) by combining two fundamentals: book value per share (BVPS) growth and the stock’s historical Price-to-Book Value (PBV) multiple. The result is an evidence-based projection you can update each year—no guesswork required.

Why Book Value & PBV Work Well for Banks

For banks, book value per share reflects the net assets supporting every share. When BVPS rises consistently, it signals a business that steadily compounds its intrinsic value. PBV then translates that intrinsic value into a market price by showing how much investors typically pay above book. Put together, they form an intuitive valuation anchor:

• BVPS trend → measures value creation.
• Average PBV → converts value into a fair price range.

Step-by-Step: Turn Fundamentals Into a Price Projection

1) Measure the BVPS growth rate (CAGR)

Start from a multi-year BVPS series (e.g., 2014–2020). Calculate the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to capture the average pace of growth. In the source material, BRI’s BVPS rose from roughly 800 to 1,637 over 2014–2020—about 10.77% per year.

2) Project BVPS forward

Apply that CAGR to extend BVPS beyond the last reported year. Using 10.77% as an illustrative rate, the material projects BVPS of around 2,729 for 2025.

3) Identify the stock’s average PBV

From the same multi-year window, compute the average PBV. In the material, the seven-year average is ~2.5×. That implies the market has historically priced BBRI at about 2.5 times its book value.

4) Convert BVPS into a price

Multiply your projected BVPS by the average PBV to estimate a fair value band. For example:

• 2025: BVPS ≈ 2,729 × PBV 2.5 ≈ 6,822 (IDR)
• 2030: Continuing the same growth logic gives a projection near 11,380 (IDR)

These are projections, not guarantees—but they’re anchored to fundamentals, not feelings.

Does the Method Hold Up Historically?

The material compares “fair” prices (BVPS × 2.5) vs. actual yearly ranges. While a given year may undershoot (undervaluation) or overshoot, the long-run tendency is for market prices to gravitate toward the fair value implied by fundamentals. Examples cited include 2014, 2016–2017, and the pandemic period in 2020, when prices temporarily diverged but later realigned.

“Price follows fundamentals.” When BVPS compounds, fair value rises; over time, prices often catch up. Patience is part of the edge.

How to Use This Framework in Practice

A. Build your own valuation sheet

1. Collect BVPS data for at least the past 5–10 years.
2. Compute CAGR to capture the trend.
3. Project BVPS 3–5 years forward using a conservative growth rate.
4. Estimate a reasonable PBV multiple (historical average is a starting point).
5. Multiply projected BVPS by the PBV to get a target zone, not a single point.

B. Turn volatility into opportunity

If the market falls below your fair value zone (e.g., panic selloffs), you may be looking at undervaluation. The material notes that even sharp drops—like during 2020—were followed by recoveries toward the fundamentals-implied zone.

C. Refresh your inputs annually

Growth rates and PBV multiples are dynamic. Update them as new annual reports arrive. If BVPS growth slows or accelerates—or if the market’s typical PBV reprices due to interest rates, profitability, or risk—your fair value band should adapt too.

Key Insights & Cautions

1) Projections, not prophecies

We’re modeling based on historical growth and average multiples. Structural changes (regulation, credit cycles, cost of funds) can shift both BVPS growth and PBV.

2) The power of predictability

The source emphasizes favoring businesses with consistent patterns. If a company’s economics are erratic, projecting fair value is much harder. As Warren Buffett famously implies: If it isn’t reasonably predictable, move on.

3) Margin of safety

Rather than chasing prices, define a comfortable buy zone below your fair value estimate. The occasional drawdown becomes an opportunity to accumulate quality at a discount.

4) Calibrate PBV to reality

“2.5× PBV” is a historical average for the period discussed. Markets can re-rate banks higher or lower as return on equity (ROE), asset quality, and macro conditions evolve. Review multi-year PBV ranges—not just the average—to set a realistic band (e.g., 2.0×–3.0×).

Worked Example (Educational Only)

Assume BBRI grows BVPS close to the historical pace from 2014–2020 and the market continues to price the bank around its historic PBV average:

• BVPS CAGR: ~10.77% (2014–2020)
• Projected 2025 BVPS: ≈ 2,729 (illustrative)
• Implied 2025 Fair Value: 2,729 × 2.5 ≈ IDR 6,822
• Longer-run 2030 Scenario: ~IDR 11,380 if trends persist

Interpretation: If prices dip materially below these zones while fundamentals remain intact, the stock may be undervalued relative to long-term fair value. If prices run far above, consider the possibility of overvaluation or a market re-rating—then reassess assumptions.

Practical Checklist Before You Buy

• Update BVPS with the latest annual report.
• Recompute CAGR (last 5–10 years) to avoid overfitting one cycle.
• Cross-check PBV vs. longer history and peers.
• Stress-test: What if growth is 3–5 pts lower? What if PBV compresses by 0.5×?
• Ensure your thesis survives adverse scenarios (credit costs, macro shocks).

FAQs

Is PBV the only metric to use for banks?

No. PBV is a strong anchor, but combining it with ROE trends, net interest margin, cost-to-income, and asset quality (NPL coverage) gives a fuller picture.

What if the market never revisits the historical PBV?

That can happen if the business structure or cycle changes. That’s why you should use a PBV range, triangulate with other metrics, and remain flexible.

How often should I refresh the model?

At least annually (after audited results). Quarterly swings are often noise; the yearly cadence keeps you focused on fundamentals.

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Bottom line: By projecting book value and applying a sensible PBV range, you can build a calm, numbers-first roadmap for BBRI’s fair value—turning volatility into opportunity and decisions into a disciplined process. If you found this useful, share it with a friend and drop your questions or ticker requests in the comments. And explore our other deep-dives here: Related article.

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Labels: Finance

References / Sources

• Cara Prediksi Harga Saham Bank BRI! — Channel: Saham dari Nol — Source video
• Investopedia: Price-to-Book (PBV)
• Investopedia: CAGR