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Is China the Real Winner of the Ukraine War? Unraveling the New World Order

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Is China the Real Winner of the Ukraine War? Unraveling the New World Order

Technology and AI Geopolitics
Shifting global alliances and the prolonged Ukraine war are reshaping the world order. Discover why experts argue China is quietly gaining the most from this conflict, and how these changes impact the future of global power.

The world has been watching the war in Ukraine unfold, but few realize its true impact on global power dynamics. As the conflict continues, some analysts suggest that China—not Russia or the West—is emerging as the real winner. What does this mean for the future of international relations, technology, and global security?

Understanding Realism: The Core of Global Politics

Professor John Mearsheimer, one of the world’s leading political scientists, explains that realism is the driving force behind state behavior. In this view, countries—especially great powers—are always seeking to increase their relative strength to ensure their survival. The Ukraine war has become a vivid example of this theory in action.

Why Weakness Invites Danger

History shows that weak nations become targets for stronger ones. China’s “Century of National Humiliation” and Russia’s post-Soviet struggles illustrate how vulnerability leads to exploitation. The relentless push for NATO expansion despite Russian warnings, according to Mearsheimer, stems from this imbalance of power.

The Rise of Multipolarity: End of the Liberal International Order

The era where the United States dictated the world’s rules is fading. With China and Russia rising, the global system is now multipolar. During America’s “unipolar moment” (1990–2017), Washington pursued liberal policies, hoping to transform rivals into partners. But as China’s power grew, realism—and great power competition—returned to the forefront.

China’s Strategic Patience Pays Off

China benefited from years of U.S. engagement. While the West hoped China would become a liberal democracy, Beijing focused on strengthening itself. Now, as the U.S. pivots to containing China, the war in Ukraine is creating strategic distractions that work in China’s favor.

Ukraine War: A Catalyst for a New World Order

The Ukraine conflict is more than a regional struggle; it’s accelerating the creation of two separate world orders:

  • Chinese-led order—New economic and political institutions like the AIIB and Belt & Road Initiative.
  • American-led order—Alliances such as AUKUS and the QUAD, aiming to counterbalance China’s rise.

Global institutions like the UN remain, but their influence is thinning as great powers assert their own spheres.

The Irony: Prolonged War Benefits China

The longer the Ukraine war drags on, the more the U.S. is tied up in Europe, limiting its ability to focus on East Asia. This creates an opening for China to expand its influence across Asia and beyond, with minimal American interference.

China and Russia: Asymmetric Interdependence

Current U.S. policies have pushed China and Russia closer. While their partnership is not one of equals, both need each other. Russia relies on Chinese economic and political support, especially as Western sanctions bite. Meanwhile, China needs a stable Russia to keep America occupied in Europe.

“Cold Peace” in Ukraine, Tense Competition in Asia

According to Mearsheimer, the best outcome in Ukraine may be a “cold peace”—an uneasy stalemate rather than a full settlement. Meanwhile, in Asia, the risk of conflict is rising, especially over Taiwan and the South China Sea. These flashpoints could trigger dangerous confrontations between great powers.

What Does This Mean for Southeast Asia and the World?

Southeast Asia is no longer a backwater in U.S. strategy. As China becomes America’s main rival, all of East Asia, including Southeast Asia, gains new strategic importance. However, U.S. resources remain stretched as long as Ukraine is unresolved, creating uncertainty and shifting power balances in the region.

  • Key Insight: The more successful the West is at weakening Russia, the higher the risk of nuclear escalation.
  • Fact: Global debt and rising interest rates are putting pressure on Western societies, potentially shifting public sentiment against prolonged foreign wars.

How Should the West Respond?

Many experts believe the U.S. should focus on balancing China in Asia and find a diplomatic off-ramp in Ukraine. Yet, entrenched political elites and established policies make major changes difficult, regardless of election results. Domestic challenges may eventually force new directions, especially in Europe.

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Conclusion

The Ukraine war has unexpectedly empowered China, accelerating a shift toward a new world order defined by great power competition. For policymakers and the public, understanding these trends is crucial to navigating the uncertain years ahead. Do you think China’s rise will reshape global power for better or worse? Share your thoughts below and join the conversation!

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